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DevelopingLicensing & policy·Watch Brief·Belgium, France, Germany, Italy, Netherlands, Poland, Portugal, Spain and Switzerland·Prediction markets and cross-border gambling regulation

Nine European regulators put prediction-market partnerships on notice

Nine regulators warned sports bodies about prediction markets; Germany has now set a national licensing boundary and Lithuania has blocked Polymarket.

Published 26 August 2026 · Updated 8 September 20267 minute read
By iGaming Atlas Editorial Team3 primary sourcesNext review 9 October 2026
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Evidence behind the story

What we checked

Primary documents

3 checked

Response record

Not requested

Last source check

2 October 2026

Next scheduled review

9 October 2026

Why this matters

The statement shifted prediction-market risk from a platform-only issue to sponsorship due diligence. Germany and Lithuania now show why that warning needs a country matrix: one authority has published a category-level licensing position, while another has used court-backed access and payment controls against a named platform.

Procedural status

Joint regulatory warning and cooperation pledge

Nine authorities stated a shared enforcement concern but retained national laws and procedures. Germany has since published its national legal position, and Lithuania has announced a platform-specific block. Neither development turns the original statement into a collective sanction.

The current picture

  • Nine European gambling regulators issued a joint statement on prediction markets during the 2026 men's football World Cup.
  • They warned federations, leagues and teams to check local legality before entering major partnerships with prediction-market platforms.
  • The statement did not create one Europe-wide rule; later actions now show national divergence, with German guidance and a Lithuanian Polymarket block.

Confirmed by the record

  • The joint statement was published on 17 June 2026.
  • Portugal joined Belgium, France, Germany, Italy, the Netherlands, Poland, Spain and Switzerland.
  • The regulators cited age controls, stake and time limits, fund blocking, insider information and financial volatility among their concerns.
  • They committed to closer information exchange and action where platforms do not comply with local rules.
  • Germany later said political, social and economic prediction markets cannot be licensed under its current framework.
  • Lithuania later announced a court-backed Polymarket access block and payment instructions concerning Adventure One QSS, Inc.

Not established

  • The statement does not ban every prediction market across all nine jurisdictions.
  • It does not identify a platform that has been found liable in all nine countries.
  • It does not replace national licensing, advertising or financial-market law.
  • A sports partnership is not automatically unlawful solely because it involves a prediction-market brand.

Sources for each key claim

Evidence map

Each core claim is paired with the document used to substantiate it. Open the record and check our reading.

1

Nine named European gambling authorities agreed to cooperate more closely on prediction markets.

2

The authorities warned sports federations, leagues and teams to verify legality before major partnerships.

3

The statement identifies continuous access, missing limits, weak age checks and insider-information risk.

4

Germany says political, social and economic prediction markets are not licensable, but effective German exclusion matters to the platform-specific test.

5

Lithuania announced a court-backed block of polymarket.com and payment instructions concerning Adventure One QSS, Inc.

What changed, and when

  1. 17 June 2026

    Joint statement published

    Nine regulators announce cross-border cooperation on prediction-market risks during the World Cup.

  2. 16 July 2026

    France orders Polymarket blocking

    The French regulator later issues a country-specific blocking order, illustrating that action still runs through national powers.

  3. 13 August 2026

    Germany defines its licensing boundary

    The GGL says political, social and economic prediction markets cannot be licensed, while effective exclusion from Germany remains relevant to the territorial assessment.

  4. 8 September 2026

    Lithuania blocks Polymarket

    LPT announces a court-backed domain block and mandatory payment instructions concerning Adventure One QSS, Inc.

The warning is aimed beyond the platforms

Nine European gambling regulators have told sports federations, leagues and teams to verify the legality of prediction-market platforms before agreeing major partnerships. Portugal is part of the group, alongside Belgium, France, Germany, Italy, the Netherlands, Poland, Spain and Switzerland.

That makes the statement commercially important. A platform can describe its contracts as trading products, but a sponsorship activates advertising, audience and local gambling rules. A club or media partner cannot safely treat the platform's own classification as a passport covering nine different markets.

One statement does not create one European rule

The authorities agreed to exchange information, expertise and good practice and to act where platforms do not comply with local regulation. They did not establish a shared licence, a new supranational offence or an automatic Europe-wide ban.

Each jurisdiction still has its own statutory definitions and enforcement powers. A market available lawfully in one country may require a gambling licence, face product restrictions or be unavailable in another. The joint statement makes the enforcement direction more coordinated without erasing those differences.

Why the regulators use gambling language

The statement points to users staking money on political, sporting and geopolitical outcomes. It also lists round-the-clock access, limited built-in controls, insufficient identity or age checks, financial volatility and possible use of insider information. Those features explain why gambling regulators see more than a neutral exchange product.

This is the regulators' shared risk assessment, not a finding that every platform lacks every safeguard. A specific case would still need to identify the product, customer route, local law and control failure. Atlas preserves that step because platform categories can hide meaningful design differences.

Sponsorship due diligence now needs a jurisdiction matrix

A sports organisation considering a partnership should know where branding will appear, which audiences can register, whether contracts include sport, what minimum age applies and which entity holds any relevant authorisation. Geoblocking and age gates should be tested rather than accepted as presentation slides.

Contract terms also matter. A club may need rights to suspend campaigns, remove links, restrict markets or terminate the relationship after a regulator's notice. The joint statement does not prescribe these clauses, but it makes the risk of ignoring territorial legality difficult to dismiss.

France shows what national follow-through can look like

One month after the joint warning, France ordered internet providers to block Polymarket. That separate decision did not arise automatically from the nine-regulator statement; it used French authority and a specific enforcement record. The sequence shows how coordination and national action can sit together.

Other countries may choose warnings, advertising restrictions, payment disruption, blocking or court proceedings depending on their law. Coverage should therefore track each action independently instead of announcing a continental prohibition that no document creates.

Germany and Lithuania now show two more national routes

Germany's GGL has now published a category-level position: political, social and economic prediction markets cannot be licensed under the current German framework. Its guidance still preserves a territorial boundary. A foreign platform that effectively excludes Germany and blocks the relevant markets is not automatically treated as an unauthorised German offer merely because it exists elsewhere.

Lithuania has moved to a named action. On 8 September, its gambling authority said it obtained a Regional Administrative Court decision allowing polymarket.com to be blocked and issued mandatory instructions for payment providers to stop transactions involving Adventure One QSS, Inc. The notice does not report a criminal conviction or a financial penalty.

These records do not create a common enforcement ladder. Germany has clarified the legal category without naming a sanctioned operator; Lithuania has targeted access and payments; France used its own network-blocking power. Their shared direction is visible, but the legal act and procedural protections remain national.

The next headline needs a named act

The joint declaration is already a meaningful signal: prediction markets have drawn coordinated attention from regulators serving nine large European jurisdictions, and sports partnerships are part of the concern. What it does not provide is a list of illegal platforms or a sanction against a named sponsor.

The story changes when a regulator identifies a product, orders a block, issues an advertising ruling or challenges a partnership. Until then, the strongest accurate conclusion is that the due-diligence burden has moved outward. Platforms, teams, leagues, agencies and publishers all have a reason to ask the territorial question before the campaign goes live.

Response record

The joint statement does not name a target platform or sports partner requiring a right-of-reply request.

Status: not requested

Sources checked

Update log

7 September 2026

The nine-regulator statement and available authority results were rechecked. No material named enforcement action or national court outcome was located.

8 September 2026

Material update: added Germany's national licensing and geoblocking position and Lithuania's court-backed Polymarket access and payment action. Both developments were checked against the issuing authorities and kept procedurally separate.

2 October 2026

The ANJ joint statement, GGL national guidance and Lithuanian authority notice were rechecked on 2 October. The cited records still support national, procedurally separate responses and do not establish a Europe-wide prohibition. No material change to these cited records was found; the public update date is unchanged.